[...] “Most successful insurgent and terrorist networks are hybrid forms of network and hierarchal organization,” writes Adam Elkus in a series of free-form, stream-of-consciousness remarks available at http://www.groupintel.com and titled Can Strategy be Crowdsourced?
1. Organizations in any sense are hybrid forms. The most steeply hierarchal organizations host informal, weak tie networks.
Elkus continues:
As Naval Postgraduate School professor David Tucker details, hierarchy enables organizations to enforce standards, efficiently marshal resources, and formulate strategic goals. Even the most protean “leaderless” organizations often have a strategic class of dominant personalities who create the basis for instrumental action by formulating ideas and punishing deviant behavior. Wikipedia, for example, is commonly cited as an example of the wisdom of crowds. Anyone, after all, can contribute to it. But Wikipedia enforces standards through a class of privileged monitors who scour the online encyclopedia for errors. It is also important to point out that a small group of contributors produce the bulk of entries, in contrast to the casual user who edits a couple of minor details
2. Elkus refers to star-and-entourage social formations if we read him correctly. This is the familiar notion that people in online groups tend to organize themselves around a few high performers. This is an early observation in the research literature. King et al. in their Rise and Fall of Netville identify “guru” figures as a part what they describe as the meritocracy of the early internet. This star-entourage social formation is redolent of Barabasi’s notion of the web as a scale free network. Baym in her Interpreting Soap Operas—an early study of a USENET newsgroup—identifies the same star-entourage social formation as the character and conduct of rec.arts.tv.soaps was largely shaped through the contributions of a few high performers. This is the story: In online communities and on the internet in general, what appears to be noise—what appears to be chaos—what appears to be a super-over-abundance of undisciplined proliferation—is an illusion. There are only a few sites that nearly everyone visits, e.g. google, yahoo, amazon.com, ebay. Everything else is background noise, the ground against which the figure emerges. It is the same in the many niches and online communities. Each will have its cluster of stars, gurus, popular bloggers, or high performers of whatever sort to whom most of the others draw from or link to. Halpin et al. in their Complex Dynamics of Collaborative Tagging (Proceedings of the 16th international conference on World Wide Web) develop evidence to suggest that tags in del.icio.us also follow a power law distrution. A few tags in any topic domain are high performing and used by many. The overwhelming majority get used by a few or used rarely.
Elkus continues:
Many network organizations also co-opt pre-existing social networks as a source of manpower [...]
3. All networks of whatever kind require subsidy and substrate. A neighborhood network requires a neighborhood and a neighborhood requires a social and a material basis. The networks that facebook or twitter host require the affordances of facebook or twitter.
4. If I read Elkus correctly, he struggles with the same contradiction in the notion of a scale-free network that I do. For me, a scale-free network is a heirarchy—it is the very definition of a hierarchy, just as a hierarchy is a special case of the network form. It may be an informal hierarchy or a hierarchy in some other special sense, but it is a hierarchy. Follow my reasoning. Post 9.11 network theorists including Barabasi considered the problem of how to disrupt or degrade the performance of networks whether human or otherwise. The consensus that emerged was that scale-free networks like the web or al qaeda were highly resiliant—a network could lose many, many nodes—provided that the network did not lose a so-called “critical node,” such as a key internet node (e.g. google) or a person with special skills. Put another way, a star can lose many members of her entourage and still be a star. But should the star disappear, the entourage itself would have no social or perhaps material basis. Those “critical nodes”—or stars or gurus or whatever—are the top of your organizational flow chart just as easily as they are the centers of your network diagram. Whether they wield formal authority or not, they are the hierarchs.
Networks and network centric organizations tend to be flatter. They host fewer intermediaries, the middle people, middle management, the supervisory layers. But they are still hierarchal in form and character.
5. In this sense an hierarchal organization with high redundancy can be more resiliant than a network. Consider a rifle company. Every element has the same basic skill set though different elements have different roles and specializations. Ideally the formation could lose half or more of its elements—and even its cadre—and still perform its mission. But this sort of resiliance is costly. Everyone must receive the same basic training and train together often. In a network, on the other hand, not everyone has to know everything; not everyone has to be able to do everything. As in a market, knowledge, tasks, resources, critical skills, all these can be distributed more efficiently. But just as a fully rationalized market—a market of complete efficiency, hence no duplication, loose couplings, or redundancy—can be disrupted or fail completely if a critical system fails or a key resource gets depleted, a scale free network can be brought down if one or two critical nodes fail.
Elkus continues:
[...]
The true inheritors of the future may not wisdom-filled crowds but hidden manipulators adept at hiding within the mass of information and guiding gullible human herds. A massively parallel information ecosystem driven by emergent and viral processes can be influenced by a phenomenon futurist Jamais Cascio calls “participatory deception”—the usage of social media tools to create fake viral trends and memes. Smart mobs, participatory networks, and layers of other unwitting proxies could very well be engineered into acting out processes set in motion by the strategic interaction of these manipulators. This is a problem with special relevance to those engaged in security, counterterrorism, and the “war of ideas” [...]
6. The influencers of informal social organizations stand in a critical relation to the influenced—their entourages.This relation can be described as reciprocal altruism. High-trust systems or relationships can be easily spoofed or deceived the first time. But what you visit upon the system or the relationship will probably get visited back upon you. Give and it will be given to you again. Take too much or take without giving back and the system may edge you toward the door. Also, conditions change. Influencers can lose their influence. What counted as high performance yesterday may not count today. Stars can fall out of favour with their fans. The social mechanism will renew itself one way or another. Formal organizations seem to be designed to resist these processes. But “gullible human herds” left to their own devices tend to learn—they don’t stay gullible, or grim reality culls the herd of its gullible members—just as a market will correct itself in light of new data at the expense of its poor performers. My point is simply this: any so-called participatory deception will be exceedingly difficult to develop and especially to maintain over time. Or at the very least it will be as costly as any other sort of deception.
7. Elkus argues elsewhere in his article that “crowds do not think—the most basic perquisite for conceiving strategy.” A crowd may not think. But people do. From Virgil’s Aeneid, the first Homeric similie of the poem:
[...] As, when in tumults rise the ignoble crowd,
Mad are their motions, and their tongues are loud;
And stones and brands in rattling volleys fly,
And all the rustic arms that fury can supply:
If then some grave and pious man appear,
They hush their noise, and lend a listening ear:
He soothes with sober words their angry mood
And quenches their innate desire of blood [...]
Deception without benefit of force or fraud is unsustainable. Force and fraud are costly to maintain. Trust and transparency are more efficient though the front-end costs can be high. The lesson is simply this: reputation is everything. It can move crowds.
yours &c.
g.